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THE MERGER FUND INTERVIEW (MERFX)
WITH BONNIE SMITH AND FRED GREEN OF WESTCHESTER CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT JANUARY 11,
2006
Legend ®:
Bonnie and Fred, we would like you to go into the background of
your firm and how it got started.
Fred: I started Westchester Capital Management in
1980. I had been on Wall Street for seven years at Kidder
Peabody and Goldman Sachs. At Goldman, I was a senior portfolio
strategist and member of the Investment Policy Committee. I left
Goldman in 1980 to start Westchester Capital Management. I hadn’t
been doing merger arbitrage at Goldman, but I’d been involved
in some arbitrage situations and really fell in love with the
strategy. I decided that I wanted to do my own thing and focus
on merger arbitrage, and that’s what we’ve done ever since.
Now, 26 years later, we’ve invested in more than 2,000 mergers
and takeovers. That’s been our sole focus since the firm’s
inception. We’re still a small shop. We have nine
professionals here at Westchester, and Bonnie joined me in the
mid-80s, so it will be 20 years in March for her.
Bonnie: It didn’t take me long to learn the
business after I started here. I didn’t know much about
arbitrage, but Fred was an excellent teacher. I also fell in
love with the business. It was a lucky break for me, to have
this as my first job when I was studying for my MBA. I was
fortunate to end up in the right place.
Fred: We started out managing individual
accounts for high net worth investors, and over the years we
changed our focus and now basically just manage pools of
capital. In 1989 we took over an existing mutual fund, turned it
into The Merger Fund, and have been managing it for 17 years.
Bonnie and I have been the co-portfolio managers every since. We
took over the fund when it was at about $10 million in assets,
and it has $1.3 billion now. We manage a little less that $200
million in hedge fund assets, so we’re around a billion and a
half total, all in merger arbitrage. We run the hedge funds a
little more aggressively than we run the Merger Fund. We take
larger positions, use a little more leverage, and there’s not
always a perfect overlap between the portfolios. Generally
speaking, though, we're in the same arbitrage positions in both
our hedge funds and in the big mutual fund.
Westchester Capital Management, the company I started in
1980, has always been registered as an investment advisor since
in order to run a mutual fund you must be registered. Our
affiliated "sister" company, Green & Smith
Investment Management, which runs the hedge funds, had not been
registered with the SEC until recently. We jumped the gun on the
hedge-fund registration requirement and became registered around
the middle of 2005. It was official in June or July. There are
some hedge funds that are attempting to circumvent the
registration requirements by imposing long lock-up periods or
not taking new investors. If you have a two-year lock-up or you’re
not taking new money, I believe you do not have to register with
the SEC no matter how much money you’re managing, which is a
huge loophole in the law, but that is another discussion
entirely. We are perfectly happy registering Green & Smith
Investment Management because we have been living in a
"goldfish bowl" since 1989, when we started running
The Merger Fund and have been subject to periodic exams by the
SEC. We have gone through five examinations since we started
running the Fund, and I have to say they have been rather
thorough. The SEC comes in and camps out in the office and has
the right to go through every file, every piece of paper, every
trading record that you have. I think that this level of
regulatory scrutiny gives the investors in our hedge funds some
comfort. We have two portfolio managers, Bonnie and I, who are
responsible for the investment decisions. We have a full-time
trader, two arbitrage analysts, and we are trying to hire two
more. We are thinking about hiring an analyst to help us out on
European deals. We also have four people in the back office that
handle trade processing and related functions. We have a
whistle-clean regulatory record, and I think we are highly
regarded by our peers.
Legend ®:
Can we expand on your comment about hiring somebody to look at
the European market? According to Morningstar, you do have some
foreign exposure. What’s the form of that right now? How do
you want to expand upon that as far as a portion of your
portfolio?
Bonnie: We’ve had as much as 20% exposure
abroad. Otherwise, the bulk of our investments are in companies
located in the U.S. and Canada. It is sometimes difficult to get
good information about foreign deals, but some countries are
better than others. For example, we think we have a good
understanding of the regulatory process in the U.K., and we also
have access to a number of U.K.-based research analysts. When it
comes to other countries in Europe, it is sometimes a little bit
of an "old boy" network and information isn’t always
disseminated fairly. The locals may receive new information
before a hedge fund calling from New York is going to hear it.
We will avoid deals when we have no competitive edge. If we aren’t
going to be first in line to get information, we aren’t
interested. I don’t anticipate our investments ever being
largely European or non-U.S. I think U.S. deals will always be
the focus of our investment strategy, but if there is some value
that can be added abroad, we would be happy to take advantage of
it.
Fred: This is not a new area for us. I just
want to make that clear. We have been investing overseas for a
long, long time. I remember one of our juiciest arbitrage
situations was Mannesmann, when it was being bought by Vodafone.
That was an amazing transaction and we made a lot of money in
it. That was at least five years ago or longer. We had one of
the largest positions in Mannesmann that we ever had in an
individual arbitrage situation. We are perfectly comfortable
investing overseas, and I think with someone else onboard we
would be able to look at a larger number of potential arbitrage
opportunities in Europe. Bonnie mentioned that we have excellent
access to analysts working for the major brokerage firms
overseas. One of the nice things about a firm of our scale is
that we get a great research call from firms such as Goldman,
Merrill and J.P. Morgan. Many of these same firms have teams of
analysts in London, some of which are specialists who focus
exclusively in arbitrage opportunities, and we are able to
compare notes with them on a continuous basis and take advantage
of their expertise when needed. Europe has always been a place
where we’ve invested over the years. We just want to get a
little better at it and look at a larger number of potential
situations.
Legend ®:
What are your thoughts when comparing the domestic market to the
European market for this upcoming year? Will they be acting as
opposites?
Fred: First of all, we think that the level of
M&A activity both here and in Europe will continue to be
solid. We saw 2005 as a good year in terms of deal activity, and
we look for more of the same this year. If you read our recent
letters and our annual report, you know that at the top of the
list of explanations for that is renewed confidence in the
boardroom. M&A activity is not solely about confidence, but
it is a huge factor. A few years ago, after 9/11, there were a
number of constraints on deal-making. To start with the
geo-political outlook, we had never been through something like
9/11 before, and it was unclear what was coming next. I think
that put everyone in a pretty cautious mood. It also wasn’t
that long ago that the accounting scandals were new news. The
WorldCom fraud was a 2002 event, and we also had Adelphia, Enron
and Tyco. Concern about the numbers was the second constraint on
deal-making. A lot of boards decided that the number one
priority was to make sure that their own accounting was accurate
and could be relied upon, and it was not an environment in which
you wanted to rush out and make an acquisition, as you might be
worried about whether the target’s numbers could be trusted.
Then you had economic uncertainty. It wasn’t clear if the U.S.
economy was going to roll over, and a lot of companies were
facing very difficult operating environments. There was this
turning inward. Boards wanted to make sure the accounting was
right, and management teams wanted to address the issues that
they faced in a very difficult, competitive environment. We had
these geo-political concerns hanging over the economy and the
market like the Sword of Damocles. All of these uncertainties
tended to turn inward to work against M&A activity.
What’s happened since is that we haven’t had a repeat of
9/11, the U.S. economy has shown amazing resiliency in the face
of record oil prices, a record trade deficit, a record budget
deficit and natural disasters, but the battleship America just
keeps plowing through the waves. Most companies can feel
comfortable that their accounting is appropriate since they have
had to live with Sarbanes-Oxley for a while. Confidence in the
numbers is up and companies are now not just looking inward.
They’re thinking strategically, and when you think
strategically, when you think about what you need to do to take
your company to the next level, one of the things you have to
think about is the possibility of some type of corporate
reorganization, such as a merger or takeover, designed to
enhance shareholder value over the long-term. So we’ve seen a
significant recovery in deal-making. We are still not close to
the levels we saw in 1998,1999 or 2000, but we are way above the
lows we saw in 2002. I don’t think things are going to change
dramatically in 2006, either here or in Europe, absent some
shock to the system.
One thing I forgot to mention that is really important is the
amount of money that private equity has raised. We've seen a
huge increase in private-equity activity, and the percentage of
deals that are initiated by private-equity firms is higher than
it's ever been since we have been keeping the statistics.
Billions and billions of dollars are out there to be invested,
and that’s contributed to M&A activity as well. I think it’s
fair to say that we see more of the same in 2006.
Bonnie: I think mergers breed mergers, and
when there’s consolidation in an industry, other companies who
are competitors feel as though they had better get on the
bandwagon. They may see the need to bulk up or expand
geographically or do something else to remain competitive. Often
when we see a merger in a given industry, others seem to follow
shortly thereafter. With respect to private-equity deals, it is
also worth noting that many of the players are working together
on individual transactions. Sometimes you see five, six, even
seven private-equity firms pooling their resources to do huge
deals. It used to be that they were only buying small- to
mid-cap firms, but now they are able to do some of the largest
deals as well.
Fred: We made the point in our annual report
that there are now very few companies listed on the New York
Stock Exchange that are too big to be taken private. To Bonnie’s
point about deals begetting more deals, a perfect example of
that would be the proposed acquisition of Inamed by Medicis.
Inamed specializes in products for cosmetic procedures and they’re
one of the largest manufacturers of breast implants. Medicis
does much of the same thing. They are not in breast implants but
they do have dermal fillers which are used to reduce facial
wrinkles. These two companies decided to merge, but there was a
problem because at the time Medicis thought that Inamed would be
on the same track as Mentor, its competitor, to get FDA approval
for silicone breast implants, which have been off the market in
the States for a while. During the pendency of the transaction,
however, Mentor got tentative approval but Inamed did not, and
the arbitrage spread widened dramatically. At that point,
Medicis sort of sat on the deal, waiting to see whether Inamed
could get back on track with the FDA. In fact, they did. Right
after that, Allergan came in to buy Inamed and Mentor came in
out of the blue to buy Medicis. There’s no question that the
Inamed-Medicis transaction spurred the others, but who would
have imagined that the target and the acquirer would six months
later be involved in deals, but not with each other. It's
absolutely true that often when a transaction is announced,
there is a competitive reaction and the other players in that
industry have to reassess their position and think about doing
their own deals. Once again, we expect that M&A activity
will continue to run at healthy levels through 2006, absent some
external shock to the system.
Another important component of our returns in arbitrage is
the spread, and there too the news is reasonably good. We have
noticed in the last six months that arbitrage spreads have
widened a little bit, not dramatically, but widened a little bit
across the board, not just for riskier deals, but for
"plain vanilla" transactions as well. I don’t know
if that’s because money has been shifted out of arbitrage,
which I think is true, or if something else is going on in the
market. Interest rates are a factor. Arbitrage spreads ought to
widen as interest rates go up, and they have. Let me give an
example of a transaction that is one our largest positions now.
We really like the deal, but I don’t want to say it’s a
"slam dunk" because we’re on record saying that
there’s no such thing as a risk-free deal. It’s Burlington
Resources, being acquired by Conoco Phillips. Burlington is a
natural gas play. They have large natural gas reserves, and I
think virtually all of them are in the U.S. You don’t have any
third-world-country risks associated with this transaction, so
the reserves are high quality and they are in politically safe
places. There’s no financing contingency here. Conoco has
plenty of money. Also, we don’t see a serious antitrust risk.
Just because of the politics of big oil, it’s possible the FTC
might take a closer look, but our antitrust counsel says there’s
zero deal risk from an anti-trust stand point. It’s not in
health care, unlike Guidant, where if one of their products
malfunctions, someone could die. These are natural resources,
oil and gas, so you don’t have quite the headline risk. For a
variety of reasons, we think this a very high-probability
transaction, and the only real question for us is when will it
close. The companies talked about closing the deal by the middle
of the year. We think that’s unduly conservative and that it
could close as soon as the end of April. If it does, the
annualized return before rebate would be 8%. Since the deal is
part cash and part stock, we get a rebate on our short stock
position. The rebate is calculated at the Fed Funds Rate less 25
basis points (currently 4%). But since it is only part stock,
not all stock, we add about two percentage points, 200 basis
points, to the return for the short rebate, which takes it to
about 10% on an annualized basis if it closes by April. I would
say that six months ago, a deal of this quality might have been
one or two percentage points lower than that in terms of the
annualized rate of return. My point being that spreads are wider
across the board, not just with riskier transactions, and that
some of the "plain vanilla" deals that are our bread
and butter and make up the core of our portfolio are offering
more attractive spreads than they might have a year ago.
Burlington Resources is also a huge deal, and at some point the
arbitrage community gets full, and that allows the spread to
widen out even more. Just to share with you how merger activity
has picked up, there were several years when we had a cash
position, and right now we are not only fully invested, but we
are as leveraged as we can be. We’re about 125% invested,
which is just about the maximum. We have about sixty deals in
the portfolio, which is also as many as we’ve ever had. There’s
both quantity and quality for us right now, which is really
nice.
Legend ®:
Bonnie and Fred, could one of you explain what you mean when you
say rebate?
Fred: Let me just walk you through the mechanics of
it. Our prime broker is Bear Stearns, and let’s take
Burlington Resources-Conoco Phillips. As I said a minute ago,
the deal is part cash and part stock. The stock part is a fixed
exchange ratio, .7214 shares of Conoco Phillips, and the cash
component is $46.50. We like to hedge away every risk that we
can, leaving us with pure deal risk, which is what Bonnie and I
are supposed to be good at. We are supposed to be able to
analyze the risk of the transaction, but we are not in the
business of making bets on the market, interest rates or the
U.S. dollar versus other currencies. Whenever we can, we hedge
away those risks. So let’s go back to Burlington Resources-Conoco
Phillips. Although we do not, we could take a flyer here and
say, "We think Conoco Phillips will keep going up because
natural gas prices and energy prices generally are going to
continue to rise," and we’ll just go long Burlington
Resources and not hedge our market exposure in Conoco Phillips.
But that’s not what we do and that’s why The Merger Fund has
a beta of only .25 and why our standard deviation is so much
lower than any conventional mutual fund. We are not subject to
those roller-coaster swings in stock prices, because in
stock-for-stock deals with a fixed exchange ratio, like
Burlington Resources-Conoco Phillips, we are short the acquiring
company’s shares through the pendency of the transaction at
the appropriate hedge ratio. So for every 10,000 shares of
Burlington Resources that we’re long, we are short 7,200
shares of Conoco Phillips. We’ve locked in the arbitrage
spread, and we don’t care whether Conoco Phillips goes up or
down. If it went up, we could have said, "Gee, it would
have been nice not to have that short because we would have
experienced the windfall." But more important to us is the
fact that if Conoco Phillips goes down, falls by ten points over
the next few months while we’re waiting for the deal to close,
we have no market exposure there because we’re short .72
shares of Conoco for every share of Burlington that we’re
long. That’s how we hedge out a stock-for-stock deal with a
fixed exchange ratio.
As for the rebate, when we sell those shares of Conoco
Phillips, we create a short-sale balance at the brokerage firm
where the trade settles. And remember, Bear Stearns is our prime
broker. We could sell our shares of Conoco through any broker on
the Street, but let’s keep it simple and say that we sell them
through Bear Stearns. Those shares are sold on the floor of the
New York Exchange just like any other shares, and there are
proceeds from that sale. Those proceeds sit at Bear Stearns, and
Bear Stearns is earning interest. Because we are an
institutional client of Bear Stearns, they rebate to us a
portion of the interest that they earn on that short sale, and
the formula is tied to the Federal Funds Rate. The Fed Funds
Rate is currently 4.25%. Bear Stearns rebates to us Fed Funds
less 25 basis points, or 4%. Going back to the arithmetic on
Burlington Resources-Conoco, the annualized rate of return,
before rebate, is about 8%, assuming an April close. Since the
deal is about half stock, half cash, I’m simply taking that
4%, dividing by two, and tacking on roughly 200 basis points to
the 8%, which adds up to a 10% annualized rate of return. We
consider that a compelling rate of return for a deal of this
quality.
Legend ®:
Bonnie, to go back to what you were saying before, given that
the fund is fully invested now, when do you think it might
re-open?
Bonnie: Well, it’s funny you should ask. We’ve
been thinking about it a lot lately. In the past, the times that
we’ve re-opened, were times when we felt that there were
wonderful opportunities for us. Usually, that was after some
negative events in the world, such as after Long-Term Capital’s
demise in 1998, and in 2001 after 9/11. When there are
catastrophic events that cause a dislocation in the markets,
arbitrage spreads start to widen. People get nervous that deals
won’t happen anymore and pending deals will be called off.
Fred and I have been in this business a long time. We’ve lived
through the crash in 1987. That was the first catastrophe in the
market that we experienced. Yet every deal in our portfolio got
done. Every strategic deal was completed because generally the
reason behind a merger is some long-term, strategic business
plan. Whether Russian debt is collapsing or not, the deal still
makes sense for the acquiring company. We’ve found that
strategic deals get done despite what’s going on in the world.
What causes deals to fall apart is something going wrong at the
target company, usually something very specific. The times when
there have been market dislocations have been some of the best
times to be out there buying. This past October was an extremely
difficult month for pretty much all hedge funds. It was
difficult for arbs also. The turmoil created opportunities, and
we were putting on deals at really attractive spreads. Interest
rates have continued to go up and that also helps spreads. We
are at a point now where we see really attractive opportunities,
more so than we’ve seen in many years, and we are seriously
considering re-opening the fund. Again, we don’t know if it’s
going to be a permanent re-opening. I think if we start to see
that too much money is coming in and it’s going to be a drain
on our performance, we’d close the fund again. The most
important thing for us is to keep the performance up, although
you might not be able to tell that based on the last couple of
years. We have a board meeting later this month and it will be
discussed.
Fred: We’ve mentioned money flowing out of
merger arbitrage. We have not been immune to that. We’ve lost
assets in The Merger Fund and we feel we have excess capacity. I
think Bonnie and I have a lot of credibility when it comes to
managing the Fund in the best interests of our existing
shareholders. We’ve shown no reluctance over the years to
close the Fund when we thought that was the right thing to do.
We’ve also shown no reluctance to re-open it when we thought
that was the thing to do.
Bonnie: Just a reminder that both Fred and I,
and actually everybody at Westchester Capital, have 100% of our
pension money in the Fund, along with our investors. Our future
is right there with our shareholders, and we’re not going to
do anything that would hurt performance.
Legend ®:
That’s very reassuring. Do you have any other types of
investments going on within the Fund other than your primary
investment strategy? Are there any other side bets going on,
other than the normal operation of the Fund?
Bonnie: No, everything in our portfolio is a
corporate reorganization. There are some positions that aren’t
exactly "Company A taking over Company B." It could be
a spin-off or some other kind of reorganization. The
overwhelming majority of the portfolio is comprised of
"plain vanilla" deals. There are a few that are a
little more complicated, but they’re still a corporate
re-organization of some kind. They are publicly announced.
Nothing is speculation.
Fred: We have three bond positions. One is in
Adelphia Communications, which we’ve owned for a while. That
qualifies in our judgment as a straightforward arbitrage
situation. The company put itself on the auction block last
year, and it’s to be acquired by a joint venture between Time
Warner and Comcast. The wrinkle in this is that Adelphia is
operating under Chapter 11, so it’s a company in bankruptcy.
Therefore, there’s an overlap with some distressed investment
funds out there. But, as Bonnie suggested, everything that we
invest in is related, one way or another, to a corporate
reorganization.
Legend ®:
Will you introduce any new mutual funds in the future?
Fred: No, we will not. We have a very small clone of
The Merger Fund called The Merger Fund VL that we started in
2004. It’s designed for variable life accounts and it’s a
very small fund, $5 million in assets. It’s sold through
Travelers and Hartford. We think it’s a nifty product because
of the tax-advantaged nature of doing merger arbitrage in a
variable life context. However, we’re not going to start any
more mutual funds. I just want to speak for a moment on the
issue of personal trading. Not only do we have our entire
profit-sharing plan and retirement plan invested in The Merger
Fund, but Bonnie and I do no personal trading whatsoever. All of
our investable assets are either invested in The Merger Fund or
one of the other pooled vehicles that we manage for others. For
17 years, neither of us has ever bought an individual stock or
bond for our own account.
Bonnie: We’re also pretty strict about trade
allocations among our various investment vehicles, and we have a
firm policy about how we allocate trades at the end of the day
so that no one fund is advantaged or disadvantaged. The SEC
always looks at that when they come in the door, and they have
always given us their seal of approval.
Legend ®:
Do those same standards apply to the rest of your professional
team?
Bonnie: We do allow our employees to do some trading.
They have to get approval from us first, and there’s a 30-day
window during which they can’t buy or sell stocks that we’re
trading for the firm. But in reality nobody has ever traded in
any of the deals in which we’ve invested.
Fred: I don’t think in the last two years that I’ve
seen more than one request for trading authorization, and all of
these would have to cross my desk.
Legend ®:
Let’s switch gears for a second and talk about the sector
weightings. Looking at your Morningstar report, you’re pretty
heavy in the service area. We were wondering what your thoughts
are in regards to that and what your thoughts are for 2006.
Bonnie: We’re reactive, not pro-active when it
comes to choosing sectors. We’re generally indifferent to the
sector weightings. However, we are more cautious in certain
sectors, like healthcare or technology, where deals might be a
little more accident-prone. We might want to shy away from
one-product companies as well. There’s just too much risk when
earnings are dependent on one product, and suddenly a competitor
launches a new one with better bells and whistles. Otherwise, we
go where the deals are. Last year there were a lot of energy
deals. As a result, we had a heavier weighting in that sector.
This year we have been involved in more transactions in the
consumer-services sector However, it really doesn’t matter to
us.
Fred: We wouldn’t want to be 50% in LBOs, for
example. Let me just amplify on what Bonnie said about what we
call systemic risk. We don’t like systemic risk. We try to
minimize it. We want to minimize factors that could influence
more than one of our investment positions at a time or that
could broadly impact a large sub-group of the portfolio. A
conventional money manager faces systemic risk all the time
because conventional investing leaves you completely exposed to
the vagaries of the stock market. No matter how good you are, it’s
going to be tough to make money in a bear market. That’s why,
when we’re faced with market risk in a stock-for-stock
acquisition, we hedge that risk away by selling short the shares
of the acquiring company. Regarding industry or sector risk, the
problem with financially driven transactions, with leveraged
buyouts, is that they’re very sensitive to conditions in the
financial markets, particularly the high-yield financing market,
which consists of the leveraged loan market and the high-yield
bond market. If you have some kind of shock to the system, a
radical change in Fed policy or something along those lines, a
whole bunch of deals could be put at risk at the same time. We
are particularly sensitive about putting a lot of our assets in
LBOs. Therefore, we try to manage that number pretty carefully.
That’s a good example of our risk-management strategies and
our attempt to minimize what we call systemic risk.
Legend ®:
Over time, what percentage of the deals that you’ve looked at
have you participated in and what percentage have you passed on?
Fred: That’s hard to say. We pass on lots of deals.
We look at virtually everything with a market cap of $200 to
$300 million and up. I want to make an important point on deal
size. There is not a cornucopia of opportunities out there in
small mergers and takeovers. There are plenty of people looking
at those transactions and, if anything, on a risk-adjusted
basis, it could be a less attractive place to be focused. One of
the advantages you have in investing in a transaction with, say,
IBM on the buy side or any large transaction with a buyer of
that quality, is that the decision to do the acquisition in the
first place has to be an institutional decision. It’s not the
whim of one strong-willed executive who might have founded the
company and treats it like his personal fiefdom. We’ve seen
deals called off on little more than what appears from the
outside to be just a change of heart on the part of one key
person or small group of advisors. In multi-billion dollar
transactions, it tends to be more of an institutional
decision-making process. I’m not suggesting they’re without
risk. Obviously, there are examples of billion-dollar deals that
didn’t happen. The risks are different, however. In answer to
your question, we look at just about everything with a market
cap of $200 to $300 million or higher. I’m not sure what
percentage of transactions we invest in, but we tend to be
pretty selective. There are whole groups of deals that we tend
not to invest in. Bank deals used to be an area where we had
lots of investments. Now we have fewer bank deals in the
portfolio because the rates of return tend to be pretty
uninteresting at 3% or 4% for some of these transactions. You
can do as well in a money-market instrument, and it makes
absolutely no sense to me to be invested in a deal that offers
those kinds of rates of return relative to what you can get in a
money-market investment. So, we haven’t invested in many bank
deals, and I think we’re involved in just one right now. But
there are some wrinkles there, and the expected return in that
transaction is in the mid-teens.
Legend ®:
How do you view a deal that has to be extended before the deal
is finalized, and how does that affect your decision-making in
terms of managing the risk in a portfolio? Will you hold on to a
position if the offer is extended, or do you seek to minimize
the exposure to the volatility of it? How do you handle your
evaluation on something like that when it occurs?
Bonnie: First of all, we look at every deal every
day. We have real-time spreadsheets that update every time a
stock trades, so we’re always looking at deals whether they’ve
been extended or not. If the spread narrows too much and we
think that we’re not being compensated for the risk, we’ll
reduce or eliminate the position. Maybe it will then widen out
tomorrow and we’ll reinvest in it. We’re very fluid here. We’re
always looking at the spread. Deals may be extended for a
variety of reasons, sometimes for a reason that increases the
risk, sometimes not. Again, we’re going to want to be
compensated for any increased risk. Or if we think that it’s
too risky, we might choose to get out of it completely. For all
of our positions, nothing is in there for life. Positions are
added and stay in the portfolio as long as we think that the
risk-reward profile is attractive. If we feel at any point that
the deal is getting too risky relative to the potential reward,
we’ll sell the position.
Legend ®:
Do you also have a maximum loss you are willing to accept before
you close out a position?
Fred: We have no mechanical decision-making rules
here. Arbitrage spreads have gotten more volatile. I think part
of that is because there is a lot of money allocated to the
business, maybe a little less now than six months or a year ago,
but nonetheless a lot of money. Not all of the players in our
space have been around the block that many times. Many of the
people setting up arb shops are former traders, and this may be
true for hedge funds in general. They bring a trader’s
mentality to the business, and I think that some of the
aphorisms floating around Wall Street capture the trader’s
mentality. For example, "Never fight the tape.," or
"The tape never lies." Well Bonnie and I, in 26 years
of investing in over 2,000 arbitrage situations, have seen the
tape lie a lot. If you bring a trader’s mentality to the
business, and you see a spread blowing out and you don’t know
why, there’s a real temptation to sell first and ask questions
later. I think that kind of mentality leads to volatility and,
on occasion, to compelling opportunities for those of us who don’t
get shaken out because of the way the stocks are acting on the
tape. This is particularly true in a period just after some
major blow-up in the business. After Guidant ran into some
problems last fall, we saw spread volatility increase in other
names as rumors spread through the marketplace that those deals
might be in trouble as well. The problem is that if you say,
"Well, I’m going to pick a point beyond which I’m not
going to stick it out any longer," or "I’m going to
dump our position or part of it if the spread goes against us by
10% or 15%," you’re asking to be whipsawed. You’re
setting yourself up to be whipsawed. Just as your trigger point
is hit and you’re selling, that could be a great opportunity
to be buying. As a result, we don’t employ mechanical
stop-loss trading rules at Westchester. I think they might lend
themselves to other kinds of investing, but I don’t think they
work very well in the arbitrage business.
Each firm finds its own comfort level with respect to
risk-management strategies. Our rates of return in the last year
or two have been nothing to write home about, but I don’t
think anybody can look at our standard deviation or our beta and
suggest that we haven’t at least served as a good
diversification tool during that time, or that our risk
management strategies aren’t working. For example, I think the
way that we have played Guidant speaks volumes about our
approach to risk management, and it has nothing to do with
mechanical stop-loss orders or mechanical loss-control rules.
Before the first story appeared in the New York Times about a
death resulting from a defective Guidant defibrillator, Guidant
was one of our largest positions. I think if you went around the
Street and talked to other arbs, you would have found the same
thing. Everybody liked the deal because it was a big, highly
liquid, seemingly high quality situation that offered an
above-average arbitrage spread. What was not to like? Plus, you
had a very high-quality buyer. When the first story about
defective products ran in The New York Times, they put it on the
front page, and it seemed like every day they had a new story
trashing Guidant. The arbitrage spread widened out a little bit,
but it didn’t widen out that much. The first good thing that
we did with Guidant is we said we think our peers are being a
little too complacent about this. We didn’t think the spread
had widened enough relative to the headlines and the
headline-risk going forward, so we significantly reduced our
Guidant position. As the problems became more severe and the
recalls became larger, doubts about the deal grew. We shifted
from a spread position where we were long Guidant and short
Johnson & Johnson to a covered-write position, in which we
were long Guidant and short Guidant call options. You’re
almost always in a less risky situation when you’re doing
covered-writes. There was a lot of juice in the options, and we
just thought that was a better way to play the deal. Hence, we
not only cut our position, but we were playing the deal in a
less risky fashion, while many of our peers were maintaining
their positions or even building them. Before Johnson &
Johnson cut the price, we felt there was a good chance that they
would do so. However, we thought it might be on the order of
10%, and we were not expecting 17%. We were one week away from
having our entire Guidant position called away from us because
our options were about to expire and they were in the money. We
would have looked like complete heroes, but because we were
short Guidant options and not long the spread, we lost less
money than our peers. Then, after Johnson & Johnson cut the
price, the spread was really large because many arbs were
concerned that the new merger agreement might still give Johnson
& Johnson an out, which we didn’t believe. We started
rebuilding the position on spread, going long Guidant and short
Johnson & Johnson. We timed that perfectly because a week or
two later, Boston Scientific came out of the blue and decided
that it would offer $72 a share for Guidant, topping J&J’s
$63 offer. I’d say that right now, thanks to all those option
premiums we earned and how we kept rolling our Guidant options,
we are close to a break-even level in Guidant. I can’t imagine
that there are many other arbs who could say that. That’s an
example of risk management, and it was never done with any kind
of mechanical decision-making approach. It was done based on
judgment and on straightforward risk management. You don’t
always have to be long the spread, that is, long the target and
short the acquirer. You can play deals with options or take
other approaches. I think even though we haven’t made any
money yet on Guidant, it was one of our finest hours in terms of
risk management. We will know in a week or so if we are going to
actually make money on this position, because we’ll be hearing
from Boston Scientific on whether they are going ahead at $72
per share.
Legend ®:
In regards to your expense ratio, according to Morningstar, it
increased by 50 basis points in 2004. We were curious as to what
your reasoning for this was.
Fred: Our expense ratio hasn’t increased at all. It’s
the way they’re calculating the expense ratio. It has to do
with whether dividends owed on short positions and interest on
borrowing should be included in the expense ratio or not. The
SEC is now saying that you have to show it both ways and there
are certain times when you can only show the higher number. Our
expense ratio has not changed, it’s always been about 135
basis points. If there are dividends owed on short positions or
interest charges on borrowing, we really don’t think that has
anything to do with an expense ratio.
You can go back and look at our prospectuses and Statements
of Additional Information, and you will always see those two
numbers. One is an expense ratio without dividends on short
positions and interest expense, and another line in the
prospectus has those added back. The only thing that has changed
is that the SEC wants the headline number to be the all-in
number, including dividends on short positions and interest
expense.
Just to clarify the point about dividends on short positions,
when you sell a stock short and you maintain that short position
through an ex-dividend date, you owe that dividend to the person
from whom you borrowed the shares. It is a cost of doing
business and one that we include in our rate-of-return
calculations. It’s embedded in the Fund’s daily NAV. What’s
a little strange about the SEC’s approach to this particular
calculation is that, as I explained before, when we sell a stock
short, we generate a rebate. We earn a rebate on that short
position, and that’s worth real money to the Fund, but the SEC
does not allow you to take rebates on short positions and net
them against the dividends you owe on those same short
positions. That’s why we don’t think it’s a very helpful
statistic. But, nonetheless, just to nail down the point, there
has been no change in the Fund’s expense ratio in recent
years.
Legend ®:
Are there anything final comments that you would like to make?
Fred: We are actually going to make some money
this year! October was one of those outliers. We’ve been in
this business 26 years, and we’ve only had one or two months
in our history like that. We were on our way to having a solid
year in 2005 but then we had four broken deals in one month.
That’s never happened to us before and I don’t think it’s
likely to happen again anytime soon. I believe we will get back
on our trendline and have a good year in 2006. We’re
optimistic about the opportunities available to us. As we
mentioned earlier, M&A activity is running at healthy
levels. Arbitrage spreads are a little wider and we see enough
opportunities that we’re seriously considering re-opening the
Fund. So I think we’ll have a good year.
Legend ®:
Thank you both so much. We really appreciate you spending all
this time with us.
Bonnie and Fred: Thank you. We appreciate your
support over the years
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